【Original May 20, 2024】
Taiwan’s Vice President Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), who won the presidential election earlier this year, will assume the presidency today. This is a milestone for the DPP as it marks three consecutive terms in power, a first for the party.
China to Shake Up Taiwan
Lai has been saying “no” to China’s pressure to annex Taiwan. The move comes as the Taiwanese, wary of the Xi Jinping administration’s de facto commitment to annex Taiwan, are in favor of Lai’s stance and weigh the risk of entrusting power to the Taiwan Nationalist Party (KMT), the largest opposition party, which is more inclined to accommodate China.
The Chinese government soon after announced that it would begin drafting laws to crack down on Taiwan’s independence forces. It had been trying to shake up the Taiwanese government in advance of today’s inauguration. Chinese coast guard vessels have been frequently dispatched to waters surrounding Kinmen Island, a remote island in Taiwan, to intensify pressure. In addition, Taiwan’s diplomatic ties have been diminishing with a barrage of pressure tactics, including the announcement shortly after Lai’s win in the presidential election that Nauru, in the Oceania region, would break off diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
Given the Xi administration’s approach to date, it is possible that it will use a black swan event or take advantage of rhetoric from the Lai administration to trigger a large-scale military exercise around Taiwan, thus necessitating caution.
Particular attention should be paid to the handling of parliament. Although the DPP won the presidential election, the KMT controls the Legislative Yuan (National Assembly) as the largest party, with the DPP administration being a minority ruling party. Care must be taken to ensure that this split does not divide Taiwan. China may take advantage and create an opening by driving a wedge between government and parliament.
The president of Taiwan is the head of state and holds ultimate authority of the army, navy, and air force. The direct election of the president by the people’s vote is a symbol of Taiwan’s democracy. This is an asset that mainland China does not possess.
In China, the legitimacy of power is not based on the will of the people but by a one-party communist dictatorship. Therefore, it may easily decline into gerontocracy if leaders lack power, or into strong-arm rule if they wield too much. In either case, what awaits China is the privatization of power. In this sense, Taiwan is a lighthouse against China.
This lighthouse will be charged with illuminating the darkness of the Chinese Communist regime, protecting Taiwan’s freedom and democracy, and guiding it to greater heights. Similar expectations were once placed on Hong Kong, where British-style democracy had taken root. Contrary to expectations, however, instead of China becoming more like Hong Kong, the latter is becoming like the former, whereby China-style strong-arm rule is being incorporated.
Strategic Point for Security and Trade
Protecting the lighthouse that is Taiwan is one of Japan’s responsibilities, which is also an island nation and shares values such as freedom, democracy, and human rights. For Japan, which envisions a “free and open Indo-Pacific” as its foreign policy, strengthening ties with Taiwan would serve as a starting point.
The importance of Taiwan from Japan’s perspective is indisputable. Taiwan is a strategic point in terms of security and trade, as it connects the East and South China Seas. Furthermore, Taiwan’s presence on the international stage is rapidly increasing due to its ability to manufacture cutting-edge semiconductors, which are indispensable for the development of artificial intelligence (AI) and information technology (IT).
